Will there be a strong earthquake in Fergana?

In recent days, the Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Uzbekistan has issued an official statement regarding reports circulating on social media about a strong earthquake expected to occur soon in the Fergana Valley. Statement.

 

As noted by Ulfat Nurmatov, head of the laboratory at the Institute of Seismology, Uzbekistan is a seismically active region, and the country's major fault lines, as well as their potential to cause earthquakes, have been thoroughly studied from a scientific perspective.

 

According to him, special maps have been developed regarding the maximum possible earthquake intensity that could be observed in the republic and neighboring countries. All new buildings and structures are designed and constructed based on these seismic maps.

 

The expert recalled that the last major earthquake in the Fergana Valley occurred in 2011 in the Kan area, with a magnitude of 6.4. Since then, earthquakes with magnitudes of 5–5.5 have been recorded, which, while relatively frequent, are of lower intensity.

 

It is noted that major fault lines with high seismic potential primarily pass through the Pamir regions of Tajikistan. Earthquakes with magnitudes up to 7 may occur there, but their seismic impact on the territory of Uzbekistan does not exceed 9 points.

 

Furthermore, it was emphasized that deep-focus earthquakes frequently occurring in Afghanistan may be felt in Central Asian countries, but due to their great depth, their intensity is significantly reduced.

 

The expert reported that over 90 percent of the Fergana Valley is classified as an 8-point zone. In some small areas, including the eastern part of Andijan city, there is a possibility of 9-point tremors only under maximum conditions.

 

It was stated that the current seismic maps are compiled for a 50-year period, according to which the probability of an earthquake stronger than 8 points in the region is only 5 percent, while the probability of such an event not occurring is 95 percent.

 

The expert emphasized that there is no reason for panic.