Scientists have assessed the risk of the Ebola virus spreading to Europe at 92 percent.

Japanese scientists have assessed the risk of the Ebola virus entering other countries through international air travel from the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda. RIA Novosti reported this.

 

According to the study results, Belgium turned out to be the country with the highest probability of the virus entering via aviation.

 

The authors of the study — specialists from Japan's National Institute of Infectious Diseases and the University of Tokyo — modeled the potential spread of the infection through international air travel.

 

The calculations were based on data on passenger flows from May 2024, covering 11,264 airports, 569,741 air routes, and over 329 million passengers. The researchers selected Ndjili International Airport in Kinshasa as the starting point.

 

After that, the "effective distance" to other airports was calculated. This indicator does not represent geographic distance but rather the degree of connectivity through air travel, passenger flows, and transit routes.

 

Based on the obtained data, the scientists estimated the probability of at least one person infected with Ebola entering a country via aviation within 30 days.

 

According to the results, the highest risk was recorded in Belgium — 77.7 percent. In France, this figure was 77.5 percent, and in the Republic of South Africa, it was 75.3 percent. When calculated using the upper bound of the model, the risk in Belgium reached 92 percent, in France 91.9 percent, and in South Africa 90.5 percent.

 

The top ten countries with a high risk level also included Kenya, the UAE, Turkey, Uganda, India, Côte d'Ivoire, and Canada. In Turkey, the figure was 69.8 percent, and according to the upper bound of the model, 86.7 percent. In Canada, these figures were 64.2 and 82.3 percent, respectively.

 

The authors of the study emphasized that these estimates indicate the risk of the infection entering the country but do not reflect the risk of its local spread after the virus has entered.

 

Ebola fever of the Bundibugyo strain was recorded in mid-May in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda. Subsequently, the World Health Organization assessed the situation as an emergency posing a threat to other countries and declared the risk of regional spread of the virus as high.

 

According to the latest data, the number of confirmed cases of Ebola in the Congo has exceeded 800. At least 192 of them have resulted in death.